Mayor Mark Sutcliffe's lead in Ottawa's mayoral race has widened, even as his own support has dropped, according to a new poll that shows his challengers dividing the opposition vote.
The survey, conducted by Liaison Strategies for Ottawa Compass and iPolitics, found Sutcliffe at 36 per cent among decided voters — down from 46 per cent in April, but still well ahead of the field.
Homebuilder Alex Lawson climbed into second place at 26 per cent, double his support since May. Coun. Jeff Leiper slipped to third at 25 per cent, while economist Neil Saravanamuttoo rose to 11 per cent from eight per cent last month.
The poll surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Ottawa residents between July 17 and July 19. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.09 percentage points.
'Losing is the new winning'
David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, said Sutcliffe's shrinking vote share hides a race that is increasingly favourable to the incumbent.
The big winner is Mark Sutcliffe, who went from having a very narrow lead to having a much larger lead, even though his own support dropped,” Valentin told iPolitics. “Losing is the new winning.
Valentin said Leiper's slide raises questions about whether the councillor's more cautious campaign approach is resonating with voters. While campaigns often use sharp contrasts to draw attention, Leiper has run a more restrained race, while Saravanamuttoo has largely avoided becoming a target of rival campaigns as his support has climbed, according to Valentin.
Lawson, who first polled at 14 per cent in May, appears to be growing beyond his original base, Valentin said.
The rate of undecided voters also fell, from 37 per cent last month to 34 per cent.
Approval and mood trending up
Beyond the ballot numbers, the poll points to firmer political ground for the mayor. Sutcliffe's approval rating rose from 41 per cent to 45 per cent, and more residents said Ottawa is headed in the right direction than said so last month.
Transit concerns fade as crime, traffic climb
The survey also tracked a shift in what voters care about. Transit fell as a top concern, dropping from 18 per cent in June to 11 per cent in July.
Concern over crime more than doubled over the same period, from seven per cent to 15 per cent, while traffic rose from 13 per cent to 17 per cent.
Valentin noted some of the month-to-month movement could reflect differences in the survey sample, but said the rise in traffic concerns also aligns with more residents returning to the office.
